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    FX Calendar 2021

    16 February 2021

    img_article_Calendrier_FX_2021-2

    Take a look at our FX Calendar 2021 for the major economic and political events likely to bear an impact on the forex market over the course of this year.
     

    EUROPE

    3 March

    Publication of the UK budget

    The British government is examining ways to continue its main household support measures, but also plans to begin raising taxes in a bid to replenish the coffers, in particular via a corporation tax hike and council tax reforms. It is the first country so far to admit the need to increase tax income in order to reduce the level of public debt caused by the pandemic.

    11 March

    ECB meeting

    The ECB is set to give further details about how to measure “financial conditions”, a key factor when it comes to establishing monetary policies.

    14 March

    Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate state elections in Germany

    The outcome of these two polls should give an idea of how the political landscape has changed in Germany, with Chancellor Angela Merkel due to step down by the end of the year.

    17 March

    Dutch general elections

    25 March

    European Council

    27 March

    German SPD party conference

    Spring

    Approval of loans and aid under the “Next Generation EU” stimulus package

    However, most of the funds will not be allocated to Member States until 2023–24, which will be a little bit too late to deal with the immediate fallout of the pandemic.

    22 April

    ECB meeting

    26 April (TBC) Thuringian state elections in Germany
    Early May  Publication of the European Commission’s latest economic forecasts
    6 May

    Scottish parliamentary elections

    Victory for the incumbent Scottish National Party could pave the way for a second Scottish independence referendum, which, at the very least, would once again exacerbate political risk and have an effect on the pound sterling exchange rate.

    6 June Saxony-Anhalt state elections in Germany
    10 June ECB meeting
    11 June German Green Party conference
    Mid-June

    ECB Forum on Central Banking

    This annual meeting is a chance for central bankers and market analysts to discuss the latest changes in the role of central banks and monetary policy.

    24 June

    European Council

    1 July

    Next stage of Brexit

    The United Kingdom introduces full border checks (e.g. mandatory customs declarations for all imported goods).

    22 July

    ECB meeting

    End of summer

    Strategy review announcement expected from the ECB

    The European Central Bank is likely to add climate change to its mandate, possibly encouraging purchases of green or transition bonds (for industries showing a will to make their activities more eco-friendly). The ECB is also due to establish a new inflation target given its ongoing failure to meet its “below, but close to 2%” target for several years.

    9 September

    ECB meeting

    26 September

    German federal elections

    Germans take to the polls to decide on a successor to Chancellor Angela Merkel.

    October

    Czech parliamentary elections

    16 December

    ECB meeting

     

    USA

    Mid-February

    Probable approval of the Biden administration’s stimulus plan, worth an estimated $1.9 trillion

    17 March

    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting

    As far as we can tell, the US Federal Reserve will continue running on autopilot until at least mid-2021, with no changes to the current quantitative easing programme ($120 bn/month).

    28 April

    FOMC meeting

    29 April

    First-quarter GDP estimate

    Due to the spread of the pandemic and the Biden administration’s plans to introduce stricter social distancing rules, further shrinkage of the economy cannot be ruled out.

    16 June

    FOMC meeting

    5 July

    Independence Day

    Financial markets close, resulting in a sharp fall in liquidity on the currency market.

    28 July

    FOMC meeting

    29 July

    Initial second-quarter GDP estimate

    6 September Labour Day

    Financial markets close, resulting in a sharp fall in liquidity on the currency market.

    22 September FOMC meeting
    28 October

    Initial third-quarter GDP estimate

    2 November Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia
    3 November FOMC meeting
    25 November Thanksgiving

    Financial markets close, resulting in a sharp fall in liquidity on the currency market.

    15 December FOMC meeting

     

    ASIA

    March

    Meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference

    Also known as the “Two Sessions”, this is an event with global relevance because it is when China, the largest driver of global growth, sets out its economic priorities for the coming twelve months. Depending on how the pandemic develops, there could be changes to support measures, with China having largely buoyed its economy over the past year through public investment. Talks are likely to focus on the trade war with Washington as the new Biden administration does not appear particularly willing to deviate from the line taken by the previous Trump administration on this matter.

    16 April

    Publication of Chinese GDP

    July

    Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo

    Due to the pandemic, the event may still be cancelled, which would cost Japan nearly $25 billion.

    15 July

    Publication of Chinese GDP

    7 August

    Elections to the Chamber of Representatives and renewal of half the Senate in Australia

    2 October

    Elections for the lower house of parliament in Japan

    18 October

    Publication of Chinese GDP

     

     

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