FX Calendar 2021

16 February 2021

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Take a look at our FX Calendar 2021 for the major economic and political events likely to bear an impact on the forex market over the course of this year.
 

EUROPE

3 March

Publication of the UK budget

The British government is examining ways to continue its main household support measures, but also plans to begin raising taxes in a bid to replenish the coffers, in particular via a corporation tax hike and council tax reforms. It is the first country so far to admit the need to increase tax income in order to reduce the level of public debt caused by the pandemic.

11 March

ECB meeting

The ECB is set to give further details about how to measure “financial conditions”, a key factor when it comes to establishing monetary policies.

14 March

Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate state elections in Germany

The outcome of these two polls should give an idea of how the political landscape has changed in Germany, with Chancellor Angela Merkel due to step down by the end of the year.

17 March

Dutch general elections

25 March

European Council

27 March

German SPD party conference

Spring

Approval of loans and aid under the “Next Generation EU” stimulus package

However, most of the funds will not be allocated to Member States until 2023–24, which will be a little bit too late to deal with the immediate fallout of the pandemic.

22 April

ECB meeting

26 April (TBC) Thuringian state elections in Germany
Early May  Publication of the European Commission’s latest economic forecasts
6 May

Scottish parliamentary elections

Victory for the incumbent Scottish National Party could pave the way for a second Scottish independence referendum, which, at the very least, would once again exacerbate political risk and have an effect on the pound sterling exchange rate.

6 June Saxony-Anhalt state elections in Germany
10 June ECB meeting
11 June German Green Party conference
Mid-June

ECB Forum on Central Banking

This annual meeting is a chance for central bankers and market analysts to discuss the latest changes in the role of central banks and monetary policy.

24 June

European Council

1 July

Next stage of Brexit

The United Kingdom introduces full border checks (e.g. mandatory customs declarations for all imported goods).

22 July

ECB meeting

End of summer

Strategy review announcement expected from the ECB

The European Central Bank is likely to add climate change to its mandate, possibly encouraging purchases of green or transition bonds (for industries showing a will to make their activities more eco-friendly). The ECB is also due to establish a new inflation target given its ongoing failure to meet its “below, but close to 2%” target for several years.

9 September

ECB meeting

26 September

German federal elections

Germans take to the polls to decide on a successor to Chancellor Angela Merkel.

October

Czech parliamentary elections

16 December

ECB meeting

 

USA

Mid-February

Probable approval of the Biden administration’s stimulus plan, worth an estimated $1.9 trillion

17 March

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting

As far as we can tell, the US Federal Reserve will continue running on autopilot until at least mid-2021, with no changes to the current quantitative easing programme ($120 bn/month).

28 April

FOMC meeting

29 April

First-quarter GDP estimate

Due to the spread of the pandemic and the Biden administration’s plans to introduce stricter social distancing rules, further shrinkage of the economy cannot be ruled out.

16 June

FOMC meeting

5 July

Independence Day

Financial markets close, resulting in a sharp fall in liquidity on the currency market.

28 July

FOMC meeting

29 July

Initial second-quarter GDP estimate

6 September Labour Day

Financial markets close, resulting in a sharp fall in liquidity on the currency market.

22 September FOMC meeting
28 October

Initial third-quarter GDP estimate

2 November Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia
3 November FOMC meeting
25 November Thanksgiving

Financial markets close, resulting in a sharp fall in liquidity on the currency market.

15 December FOMC meeting

 

ASIA

March

Meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference

Also known as the “Two Sessions”, this is an event with global relevance because it is when China, the largest driver of global growth, sets out its economic priorities for the coming twelve months. Depending on how the pandemic develops, there could be changes to support measures, with China having largely buoyed its economy over the past year through public investment. Talks are likely to focus on the trade war with Washington as the new Biden administration does not appear particularly willing to deviate from the line taken by the previous Trump administration on this matter.

16 April

Publication of Chinese GDP

July

Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo

Due to the pandemic, the event may still be cancelled, which would cost Japan nearly $25 billion.

15 July

Publication of Chinese GDP

7 August

Elections to the Chamber of Representatives and renewal of half the Senate in Australia

2 October

Elections for the lower house of parliament in Japan

18 October

Publication of Chinese GDP

 

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