FX Calendar 2022

24 January

Presidential elections in Italy

The Italian presidential election is usually a non-event, but this time it's different. Current Prime Minister Mario Draghi is the favourite to succeed incumbent president Sergio Mattarella, whose term ends on 3rd February. Draghi’s election would trigger early legislative elections. All the polls agree that in the event of an election, the far-right parties (The Lega Nord and Fratelli d’Italia [The Northern League and Brothers of Italy]), allied with former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, could win. The Movimento 5 Stelle [Five Star Movement], which is currently the leading party in the Italian parliament, would suffer a severe defeat. Early legislative elections could usher in a new period of political instability in Italy, with possible repercussions for the euro. For now, the foreign exchange market is losing interest in the Italian presidential election. It is wrong to do so.

Presidential elections in Portugal

European Central Bank monetary policy meeting

No change.

Bank of England monetary policy meeting

The Bank of England was the first central bank of a major developed country to raise its key rate last year (from 0.10% to 0.25%). Other rate rises are to come, potentially as early as February, to counter inflationary pressure linked to rising energy prices, Brexit and disruptions in international trade.

European Central Bank monetary policy meeting and update of economic projections

If inflation in the eurozone remains high, the European Central Bank could further taper its support for the economy by reducing its monthly asset purchases on the bond market, for example.

Parliamentary elections in Hungary

Prime Minister Viktor Orban is likely to be re-elected. Between now and the elections, Hungary is likely to try and stabilise the forint against its main counterparts in order to prevent higher import costs which would lead to a drop in purchasing power. The country imports on a massive scale – almost 60% of its energy, for example. Maintaining purchasing power is the current government’s priority before the legislative elections.

First round of the presidential election in France

European Central Bank monetary policy meeting

European Central Bank monetary policy meeting (from the Netherlands) and update of economic projections

Sintra Conference of the European Central Bank (Portugal)

Sintra is the must-attend annual meeting for central bankers and market analysts to take stock of monetary policy and its future development. This year’s topic is likely to be inflation.

European Central Bank monetary policy meeting and update of economic projections

European Central Bank monetary policy meeting and update of economic projections

25-26 January

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting

Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting

The Bank of Canada is expected to continue its cycle of monetary policy normalisation by raising its key rate for the first time since the start of the pandemic. It is currently 0.25%. In October 2021, it ended the asset buyback programme introduced to counter the crisis.

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

End of tapering announced

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

First rate hike of 25 basis points expected

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting

Independence Day

Financial markets close, resulting in a sharp fall in liquidity on the currency market.

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting

Increase in key rates expected.

Labour Day

Financial markets close, resulting in a sharp fall in liquidity on the currency market.

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting

Third rise in key rates expected

US Federal Reserve monetary meeting

Fourth rise in key rates expected. We feel that the key rate could be close to 1.25% by the end of 2022, against 0-0.25% at the end of 2021.

US mid-term elections

Historically, the incumbent president’s party almost always suffers a defeat during the mid-term elections. This has been the case 93% of the time since 1862 with just three exceptions: 1934, 1998 and 2002. Barring any last-minute surprises, the Democrats are therefore likely to lose a lot of seats or even their relative majority in Congress. The defeat could, however, be more severe than expected. President Joe Biden’s ratings are at an all-time low due to rampant inflation, the handling of the pandemic and the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. Biden will certainly have no more leeway to push ahead with his reform agenda.

Thanksgiving

Financial markets close, resulting in a sharp fall in liquidity on the currency market.

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and update of economic projections

Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting

We expect the end of the asset buyback programme – which was launched to counter the pandemic – to be announced at this meeting.

Chinese New Year

This is usually a good time for consumption, but thanks to Beijing’s zero-Covid policy, which is likely to be strengthened in the run-up to the Winter Olympics, the Spring Festival is unlikely to result in a noticeable surge in economic activity. Demand is one of the weak points for China’s economy in 2022.

Winter Olympics in China

Despite strict health-control measures, China could see a rise in Covid cases. The country is likely to shut down again at the end of the Games (closure of borders, difficulties travelling within the country etc.).

Meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (also known as the “Two Sessions”)

This is an event of global significance because it is when China, the largest driver of global growth, sets out its economic priorities for the coming twelve months. Two subjects are likely to be on the table: the recovery of the economy during the pandemic, and energy transition.

Upper house elections (Japanese parliament)

Meeting of the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party

This is the most important political event of 2022. The Congress is held every five years and is the highest body of the Communist Party. It is when the major political, economic and social guidelines for the coming years are set down. Several senior Chinese leaders are expected to bow out. Tradition dictates that leaders between the ages of 65 and 68 retire, which is the case for President Xi Jinping, but this rule does not apply to him. He consolidated his power last year and is expected to stay on for as long as he wants.