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FX Calendar 2022

3 January 2022

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Take a look at our FX Calendar 2022 for the major economic and political events likely to bear an impact on the forex market over the course of this year.
 

EUROPE

24 January

Presidential elections in Italy

The Italian presidential election is usually a non-event, but this time it's different. Current Prime Minister Mario Draghi is the favourite to succeed incumbent president Sergio Mattarella, whose term ends on 3rd February. Draghi’s election would trigger early legislative elections. All the polls agree that in the event of an election, the far-right parties (The Lega Nord and Fratelli d’Italia [The Northern League and Brothers of Italy]), allied with former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, could win. The Movimento 5 Stelle [Five Star Movement], which is currently the leading party in the Italian parliament, would suffer a severe defeat. Early legislative elections could usher in a new period of political instability in Italy, with possible repercussions for the euro. For now, the foreign exchange market is losing interest in the Italian presidential election. It is wrong to do so.

30 January

Presidential elections in Portugal

3 February

European Central Bank monetary policy meeting

No change.

3 February

Bank of England monetary policy meeting

The Bank of England was the first central bank of a major developed country to raise its key rate last year (from 0.10% to 0.25%). Other rate rises are to come, potentially as early as February, to counter inflationary pressure linked to rising energy prices, Brexit and disruptions in international trade.

10 March

European Central Bank monetary policy meeting and update of economic projections

If inflation in the eurozone remains high, the European Central Bank could further taper its support for the economy by reducing its monthly asset purchases on the bond market, for example.

April

Parliamentary elections in Hungary

Prime Minister Viktor Orban is likely to be re-elected. Between now and the elections, Hungary is likely to try and stabilise the forint against its main counterparts in order to prevent higher import costs which would lead to a drop in purchasing power. The country imports on a massive scale – almost 60% of its energy, for example. Maintaining purchasing power is the current government’s priority before the legislative elections.

10 April

First round of the presidential election in France

14 April

European Central Bank monetary policy meeting

24 April  Second round of the presidential election in France
Early May  Publication of the European Commission’s latest economic forecasts
9 June

European Central Bank monetary policy meeting (from the Netherlands) and update of economic projections

12 June First round of legislative elections in France
19 June Second round of legislative elections in France
27-29 June

Sintra Conference of the European Central Bank (Portugal)

Sintra is the must-attend annual meeting for central bankers and market analysts to take stock of monetary policy and its future development. This year’s topic is likely to be inflation.

8 September

European Central Bank monetary policy meeting and update of economic projections

15 December

European Central Bank monetary policy meeting and update of economic projections

 

USA/CANADA

25-26 January

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting

2 March

Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting

The Bank of Canada is expected to continue its cycle of monetary policy normalisation by raising its key rate for the first time since the start of the pandemic. It is currently 0.25%. In October 2021, it ended the asset buyback programme introduced to counter the crisis.

15-16 March

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

End of tapering announced

3-4 May

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

First rate hike of 25 basis points expected

14-15 June

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting

4 July

Independence Day

Financial markets close, resulting in a sharp fall in liquidity on the currency market.

26-27 July

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting

Increase in key rates expected.

5 September

Labour Day

Financial markets close, resulting in a sharp fall in liquidity on the currency market.

20-21 September

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting

Third rise in key rates expected

1-2 November

US Federal Reserve monetary meeting

Fourth rise in key rates expected. We feel that the key rate could be close to 1.25% by the end of 2022, against 0-0.25% at the end of 2021.

8 November

US mid-term elections

Historically, the incumbent president’s party almost always suffers a defeat during the mid-term elections. This has been the case 93% of the time since 1862 with just three exceptions: 1934, 1998 and 2002. Barring any last-minute surprises, the Democrats are therefore likely to lose a lot of seats or even their relative majority in Congress. The defeat could, however, be more severe than expected. President Joe Biden’s ratings are at an all-time low due to rampant inflation, the handling of the pandemic and the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. Biden will certainly have no more leeway to push ahead with his reform agenda.

24 November

Thanksgiving

Financial markets close, resulting in a sharp fall in liquidity on the currency market.

13-14 December

US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and update of economic projections

 

ASIA/OCEANIA

1 February

Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting

We expect the end of the asset buyback programme – which was launched to counter the pandemic – to be announced at this meeting.

1 February

Chinese New Year

This is usually a good time for consumption, but thanks to Beijing’s zero-Covid policy, which is likely to be strengthened in the run-up to the Winter Olympics, the Spring Festival is unlikely to result in a noticeable surge in economic activity. Demand is one of the weak points for China’s economy in 2022.

4-20 February

Winter Olympics in China

Despite strict health-control measures, China could see a rise in Covid cases. The country is likely to shut down again at the end of the Games (closure of borders, difficulties travelling within the country etc.).

5 March

Meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (also known as the “Two Sessions”)

This is an event of global significance because it is when China, the largest driver of global growth, sets out its economic priorities for the coming twelve months. Two subjects are likely to be on the table: the recovery of the economy during the pandemic, and energy transition.

25 July

Upper house elections (Japanese parliament)

October/November

Meeting of the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party

This is the most important political event of 2022. The Congress is held every five years and is the highest body of the Communist Party. It is when the major political, economic and social guidelines for the coming years are set down. Several senior Chinese leaders are expected to bow out. Tradition dictates that leaders between the ages of 65 and 68 retire, which is the case for President Xi Jinping, but this rule does not apply to him. He consolidated his power last year and is expected to stay on for as long as he wants.

 

 

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