The dollar has entered a period of calm—and that’s great news for businesses. Right now, the tools used to protect against currency risks are priced more attractively than they’ve been in months. Even better, market stability gives you the clarity to make smart, strategic decisions without the pressure of volatility.
Since early August, the euro-dollar exchange rate has fluctuated by just 3%. Compare that to the first half of the year, when the range was five times wider. As the chart below shows, volatility—the measure of how wildly exchange rates swing—has dropped to its lowest level this year.
Why does that matter? Because low volatility is your opportunity to act. Think of it like insurance: when a storm is raging and wind speeds hit force 10, premiums skyrocket. The same principle applies in currency markets. When uncertainty surges and volatility spikes, protection against currency exposures become expensive. Right now, they’re not.
The second reason to act now? Calm markets make it easier to think strategically. When exchange rates are swinging wildly, the instinct is to cover every risk immediately. That emotional reaction often means missing smarter, more cost-effective solutions—the kind you’ll spot when you approach the market with a clear head.
And what about the dollar’s future? There’s no clear consensus. As the chart below shows, traders are split between betting on a rise or a fall. Earlier this year, many positioned for a stronger dollar—only to be caught off guard when it slid sharply.
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With the U.S. government back on track after the shutdown, new labor and inflation data are just around the corner. These numbers could move the dollar fast.
That’s why now is the time to lock in your 2026 currency strategy—reducing risk and even creating room to benefit from favorable dollar moves—before volatility returns.
